How big is the chance of getting my stolen crypto back?

How big is the chance that you get your stolen crypto back?

The chance of stolen crypto back differs per case and cannot be expressed in a reliable percentage, because every case scores differently on four variables and the outcome ultimately lies with a third party. Whoever does give you a figure bases it on their own files and not on your case.

What you can know is the direction. If the holdings are still sitting on an address, there is something to act on. If they have already been paid out at a platform in a country that does not cooperate, the factual finding is probably the end point of what is achievable.

That honesty in advance is not reticence but a necessity. An expectation that is not met does more damage than no expectation, and it is exactly that gap which follow-up fraud fills.

Which factors decide the chance of stolen crypto back, and why does speed weigh heaviest?

Four factors decide the chance: the time between the incident and the first action, whether a payout at a trading platform has already happened, the jurisdiction of that platform, and the extent to which the route was obscured along the way. Speed weighs heaviest because it influences the other three.

• Time: after an incident holdings often sit still for days to months. Within that window there is something to report to a service provider, and after it the work becomes a historical finding.
• Payout: as long as the holdings sit on an address, there is a lead. As soon as they are inside a platform, the data lies there and no longer on the chain.
• Jurisdiction: a platform that falls under European supervision and is bound by KYC and AML obligations responds differently to a demand than a platform without a licence.
• Obscuring: a route through a mixer or across several networks breaks the direct link and reduces what can be established with certainty.

What is often underestimated is that the first 48 hours usually go not to investigation but to doubt. We regularly see that people first spend days on the question of whether they were actually defrauded, and that is precisely the window in which holdings are still sitting still.

What does it mean if the holdings have already been paid out at a trading platform?

It means that the blockchain stops telling and that the next step lies with that service provider or with a competent authority. That point is called the cash out point and in virtually every investigation it is the last factual finding.

In practical terms it also means that the investigation still has value, but with a different purpose. It then yields no lead to block anything, but it does yield the record of which party received the holdings and at which moment, with which a police report or a request can be aimed. How such a request works out is shown in our explanation of an exchange that does not pay out.

Why does the jurisdiction of the cash out point weigh so heavily?

For stolen crypto back the jurisdiction weighs heavily because a request for data or for a freeze only has effect if there is a party bound by it. A provider in the European Union falls under MiCA and under the obligations that come with it, while a provider outside all supervision falls under nothing.

For you that means three things. With a European platform a targeted police report with addresses and times is worthwhile, because there is an address where a demand can land. With a platform without a licence the finding itself remains the result. And in both cases it is the police who can demand, not you and not an investigation firm.

For the wider context Europol publishes on the international side of this problem and the European Banking Authority on the obligations that rest on providers.

How do you assess your own case realistically?

You assess your case by walking through the four factors in this order and noting per factor where you stand.

1. Determine the exact date and time of the last payment you lost, and how much time has passed since then.
2. Look up the receiving address in a public block explorer and see whether the balance is still there or has already been booked on.
3. Follow the first two or three steps yourself and see whether you arrive at an address of a known trading platform.
4. Note whether the route splits, whether several small amounts were split off and whether a mixer comes into view.
5. File a police report with the data from steps one to four included, even if the picture is not yet complete.
6. Have the route established independently as soon as you cannot get further, and ask explicitly about the limit of what can be established.

These six steps cost you an evening and give a more realistic picture than any percentage. If you get stuck at step three, that is itself an outcome: it means the route is laborious and that an estimate based on the first steps is worth nothing.

What is not possible with stolen crypto back, however much you want it?

A transaction on the blockchain cannot be reversed and nobody can commit to a return. That is not a reservation in the small print but the reason a recovery scam exists: the gap between what people hope for and what is technically possible is filled commercially.

• Paucitas makes no commitment about the outcome of an investigation.
• Paucitas does not independently establish who is behind a crypto address. What is recorded is which service provider or party holdings went to, so that this information can be followed up through the channels intended for it.
• Paucitas holds no funds itself and carries out no transactions on behalf of clients.
• Where mixers or privacy oriented networks are used, the chain cannot always be followed in full. In that case it is stated explicitly up to which point the route can be established.
• Transactions outside the blockchain, such as cash payments or internal bookings within an exchange, are not visible in blockchain data. They are only included if underlying documents are available.
• A report by Paucitas is limited to factual observations and the investigation of those observations.
• Paucitas gives no tax or legal advice.

A party that promises guaranteed recovery or return in exchange for payment is therefore itself a signal. Real services that guarantee access or return do not exist.

What if you have lost access to your own wallet?

Losing access to your own wallet is a different question from stolen crypto back after a theft, and the chance there is decided by other things: not by speed or jurisdiction, but by what data you still have.

If access is lost, it is investigated whether restoration is technically possible, exclusively on a wallet you lawfully own. Whether that succeeds depends on the data still available: a partial or complete recovery phrase, a file, a note or another lead. We assess your situation without obligation and are honest about what is realistic in your case, without guaranteeing anything. If you do not know whether what you still have is usable, feel free to get in touch.

Paucitas never asks of its own accord for your recovery phrase or private key. If you need help reading out or restoring your wallet, we guide you through that completely, without us having to see that data ourselves.

What can you do yourself and when is that not enough?

You can follow the first steps yourself, record your data and file a police report, and with a single payment to an address that is still sitting still that already takes you a long way towards getting stolen crypto back in view. That is also the part where time yields the most.

It is no longer enough as soon as the route splits, as soon as small amounts are split off, as soon as a mixer or a move to another network comes into view, or as soon as you want to add to your police report in a way that has to rest on facts. From that point the choice of time windows and branches decides the outcome, and that has to be accounted for instead of estimated.

Paucitas uses no automated analysis software, in any role whatsoever. The investigation is done manually on the basis of publicly accessible block explorers. Every transaction and every transaction hash is verified one by one before it is included in a report.

Data is supplied digitally or at the office. Per case a delivery list is provided which states what data is needed. Where necessary Paucitas guides the collection and delivery of that data.

What is in the report and how long does an investigation take?

A report by Paucitas follows a fixed structure: reason and description of the assignment, the questions, the scope, the starting points, the data supplied, the sources consulted, the method in outline, verification and quality assurance, reservations and limitations, findings per part, a chronological overview, analysis and coherence, conclusion, statement of independence and appendices. Not every report contains all parts, and the structure is matched to the purpose.

An investigation by Paucitas takes, depending on the size of the file and the urgency, between one working day and two weeks. An urgent report can be delivered within one working day and in exceptional cases on the same day. A regular investigation is usually ready within three working days. In files with many transactions, several wallets or missing history the lead time rises to around two weeks. A surcharge applies to urgent assignments.

Paucitas works with a fixed rate based on your situation. Sometimes we apply an hourly rate by agreement, but the hours are always fixed in advance, so that you never face surprises. No investigation is started before the costs have been discussed and agreed.

Paucitas usually responds within a few minutes to an hour and in virtually all cases on the same working day.

Where does the work of the police and the bank begin and where does that of Paucitas?

The police take down your report and can demand data from a service provider through criminal procedure, and your bank can investigate internally a payment that ran through an account. Paucitas can do neither and instead establishes which route the holdings took and up to which point that is certain.

If you want to know where your case for stolen crypto back stands on those four factors, you can have that looked at calmly in a free intake. We say honestly when a route is expected to reach a dead end, even if that means an investigation adds little. More about this service is on blockchain investigation and transaction tracing, and the wider approach on the situation page about tracing stolen crypto.

Date of last revision: 1 September 2026.